Gary Samore put together a gang of nuclear pundits including Jim Walsh, Charlers Ferguson, Henry Sokolski, Michael Levi, Mitchel Reiss, Bruno Tertrais, Jon Wolfstahl, Bob Einhorn, and George Perkovich to discuss what to do about the iRran (CFR). Pretty impressive!

Just today, Greg Bruno has an excellent analysis on the impact of lower oil prices on Iran (CFR). This should give the next US president a lot of free space..

Albright’s shop has a new page on Iran, something like a clearing house on the program, pretty good graphics and some interesting background, all on one page (ISIS). Cool that ISIS uses the NTI profile for the history :O)

Akbar Ganji argues in Foreign Affairs that the real decision maker in Iran is not Ahma but Khami (FA). Did not read it, but it might be interesting, even if somewhat lengthy. Well, well, well, but the conclusion, something that unexpected ;o)

Clawson and Eisenstadt argue in the last number of Survival that the military option is feasiable and the US should better take it (Survival). Well, Einstein said it, and I agree: I am sure about the fact that space is infinite…

This is not that new, but interesting: Perkovich arguing that the US should give Iran one chance and than stop if the response is not coming (Carnegie). An old negotiations strategy, I just don’t know whether it’s not a bit too transparent…

West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center has a paper by Felter and Fishman on Iran’s strategy in Iraq stating that the iRan has a lot of influence in the iRaq and the US should do something about it (WestPoint). What a surprise…

Finally, a bunch of folks got a meeting to put together a hawkish paper on the iRan, “the most significant strategic threat to the United States” (BipartisanPolicy). I would call this a great upgrade for our kid – almost as good as the Soviet Union two decades ago, yeah? :O)

Else, if you’re bored this Sunday and don’t want to read or write any more, but cannot escape the attraction of doing something “nuclear”, watch this – to some degree connected to our dearest kid, the iRan :O))

Iran and the IAEA: The Road to “Gridlock” and an Uncertain Path Forward

A CNS Feature Story by Liviu Horovitz and David Peranteau

Solana will be in Tehran on Sunday, June 15, to deliver the 2006 updated proposal (PressTV). Schulte gives an interview in Baku saying Iran is trying to open up several secret plants (Trendaz), and Bush is in Europe to get support for his last Iran endeavors (Bloomberg).

Forden’s and Thomson’s plan from MIT to put an internationally run enrichment facility in Iran and control the technology starts to receive interest after 3 years of disapproval: Dianne Feinstein, Chuck Hagel, Edward Markey from the Hill, as we know the group of 3 around Pickering, and now even Cirincione, who until now dismissed the proposal. Even Kimball from ACT is considering it (BostonG).

I maintain that an approach along these lines is the only thing that the Iranians will accept and unless there is an interest in keeping this thing going, this is the solution the world will have to go for.

With Iran protesting and the UN and (VOA) oil prices going up 11 dollars almost just because of Mofaz’ fun in saying bombing becomes unavoidable, the deputy defense minister Matan Vilnai criticized the declarations sharply for the internal political instrumentalization (AHN) and Olmert distances himself too from the statement (Haaretz). Well, too much is too much, even for Israel.

International cooperation: Chavez makes fun of nuclear bicycles imported from Tehran and wants to give one to G.W. (Fars).

Daniel Dombey from the FT believes that Bush will try to push the Europeans on sanctions and investment restraints on Iran during his visit this week (FT).

David Ignatius has an interesting article about the leader of the Quds Forces Qassem Soleimani arguing that it is him who controls the operations in the Middle East and attributing him a very rational and calculate approach (WP).

Even Graham Allison agrees that it is time to talk to Iran as anything else has failed (Boston Globe) and if you want some simple and straight forwards thinking about good and bad, have fun here (MET).

And finally, if you don’t sleep and want to be frightened a bit, read the opinion of this “scholar” from the AEI to see how Iran can be compared to Nazi Germany (or to Aliens) – “they are with us again” (WSJ).

Israeli transport Minister Shaul Mofaz says “if Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it / attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable” (Reuters). Asked about a US position, the White House spokesperson answered “I’m not going to talk about hypotheticals. I think we’ve been pretty clear in recent weeks and months about our approach on Iran” (Reuters).

After a meeting with Rice, the Turkish FM Babacan says his country does not want Iran to have a nuke but believes the problem can be solved through political dialogue (Hurriyet).

While very strong at AIPAC, Olmert leaves the White House after less than one hour saying “I went in with more question marks than I came out with regarding ways and means, the pressures of time and the resolve required to deal with the [Iranian nuclear] problem” (DEBKA).

On the Conservative side, Rice accuses Iran that it does not want to talk to the US and reiterates the necessity to deny Iran the nuke. Olmert holds all cards on the table with “the Iranian threat must be stopped by all possible means” and “Israel will not tolerate the possibility of a nuclear Iran, and neither should any country in the free world” (NYT / Reuters / RFE).

Somehow surprisingly, Obama has a very pro-Israel speech: “Israel’s security is sacrosanct. It is non-negotiable [and] Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel, and it must remain undivided.” On negotiations he ads “I have no interest in sitting down with our adversaries just for the sake of talking. But as president of the United States, I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leader at a time and place of my choosing, if and only if it can advance the interests of the United States.” But on nukes: “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – everything” (Haaretz). Clinton supports Obama’s Israel policy (nice movie with her saying nice stuff about him).

At the BoG in Vienna, the US urges Iran to “abandon forever the pursuit of nuclear weapons” saying the IAEA’s evidence points overwhelmingly to such endeavors. The EU says Iran’s rejection to the evidence is “neither credible nor acceptable, given the quality of and quantity of the documents presented by the agency to Iran” (AP). Hinting to Washington’s refusal to allow the Agency to comprehensively share information with Tehran, Russia says only “objective and verified information” should be used in the investigation and Iran must have the chance to “carefully analyze the information” (AP).

Talking to the European parliament about his soon to come visit in Tehran, Solana says “I don’t expect miracles but I think it is important for us to keep extending a hand” (AP).

After the Iranian ministry of foreign affairs implies Tehran might limit its cooperation with the Agency, Ahmadinejad says there is no need to review the cooperation with Vienna (Reuters) and Khamenei underlines that Iran does not want nukes but will not give up nuclear energy (Reuters).

In a demonstrative step, Iranian ambassador to New Delhi shares the “solution-plan” with foreign secretary Mehdi Nabizadeh (economictimes).

Solana is expected soon in Tehran to deliver his proposal around the middle of the month (Reuters / Reuters). Olmert is in the US, talks especially Iran (Haaretz) but tells AIPAC peace with Syria would be beneficial (bloomberg). At the same time, Tzipi Livni underlines that all options are open (AP).

For the interested, Jonathan Tirone listened to Vali Nasr on Iran in France over the weekend – the US should revise its attitude and initiate negotiations (bloomberg). Charles Schumer’s is a nice senator with a simple world view and straight-forward arguments – more pressure on Iran and more help from Russia (WSJ). Interesting questions raised and signs on the wall readings on the election of Larijani as the speaker of the parliament (chcagotribune).